NATIONAL NEWS - In a media briefing this evening (Tuesday 28 April), Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said that Covid-19 was still showing no signs of abating worldwide, with the US having passed the 1 million infection mark and deaths at more than 214,000 globally.
Overall more than 3 million had already caught the coronavirus.
“As of today 4,996 cases have been reported in South Africa.” This was an increase of 203 from Monday.
He said 185,497 tests had been conducted to date.
There were three more deaths, bringing the total to 93. All the deaths were in the Western Cape and they all had co-morbidities.
He said hypertensions, diabetes and obesity were the three most common co-morbidities associated with those at risk of dying. Those above age 63 were also more vulnerable, along with people suffering from lung problems.
The South African mortality rate has been at about 1.9%, he said. Some countries in Europe had gone as high as 14%.
More than one-third of South Africans suffered from hypertension, while millions had diabetes and were overweight, he said.
South Africa also has the highest incidence of HIV and TB, putting it in a uniquely vulnerable position.
Mkhize said the reason the number of infected people was continuing to rise steadily was because of increased testing but also because people were continuing to interact in their communities even after travel from abroad was halted.
“The only risk of infection has become internal spread.” He said people were clearly still coming into contact with each other despite the lockdown.
However, a rapid rise in cases had not continued as was happening at the start of the epidemic in South Africa.
“When we started, we pleaded with all South Africans to delay the spread and flatten the curve.” He said epidemiologists had come up with three models, one being if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked, while the best-case scenario was that the peak would happen much later. A third model would have deferred the peak, but with it still coming earlier than expected.
He said the optimistic curve was to see a peak in late July or early September. That way we can cope, rather than be overwhelmed as the health services.
“Pessimistically, if we don’t observe distancing and hygiene, the peak could come in June or early July.”
The minister said the hard lockdown had delayed the peak by as much as six weeks.
“When we addressed the media two weeks ago, we indicated that the lockdown had reduced the spread. We haven’t stopped it. We are quite pleased with what has happened. Our model tells us even if we pushed the lockdown further, it would not have stopped the spread by much.”
He said a further extension of lockdown would no longer have a major epidemiological benefit. The extension of the lockdown by another two weeks had, however, played a big role in slowing the spread and helping to let people get ahead with screening operations.
Mkhize took issue with media reports that government had been operating off incorrect models, but he pointed out that a number of models had been considered, and a number of groups were engaged in drawing up different models.
“We are trying to look for the best possible model … as we move along. That has actually been something that we have been able to work on. The report that came from City Press that there is a loss of support for lockdown; it tends to be misleading because after five weeks there isn’t an additional need for lockdown.”
He said President Cyril Ramaphosa had made it clear that relaxing the lockdown would be the aim in months ahead.
Issues of food security and balancing the needs of the economy had always been top of mind for government, and he maintained that their decisions had been based on science and data.
While discussing the challenges around keeping enough personal protective equipment available for health workers, he said 135 public and private sector health workers had contracted Covid-19. Some were doctors, nurses, technicians and other members of staff. One doctor who had retired in the Free State was the only fatality after he contracted the virus while travelling abroad.
“The others, we have released the distribution to the media where we have seen infections detected.”
He said the health of medical staff remained a priority.
