Electric vehicles: SA poised to leapfrog forerunners in the long-term

MOTORING NEWS - South Africa stands at a fascinating crossroads. Often perceived to be lagging behind the developed world, the nation has a unique opportunity to not only catch up, but to leapfrog established markets like Europe and the USA in the long-term adoption of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs).

This won't be driven solely by the introduction of much needed government incentives but also the spirit of innovation and necessity that has seen South Africa lead in other technological spheres.

We have seen this happen before. In the early days of mobile communication, South Africa trailed significantly. However, the rapid rollout of pre-paid services and groundbreaking innovations like the ‘Please Call Me’ service allowed the country to bypass the growth patterns of nations focused on contract-based systems.

South Africa democratised mobile communication in a way that many did not initially foresee.

Similarly, the banking sector in South Africa has defied expectations. Services like FNB's eWallet have provided accessible financial solutions to a large unbanked population, placing South Africa ahead of many developed nations in mobile payment and digital banking adoption, despite its socio-economic disparities.

These examples demonstrate a powerful ability to innovate and adapt to local conditions, leading to unexpected technological leadership.

This same dynamic is at play in the budding NEV market. Despite facing significant headwinds, including a 25% import tax on EVs compared to the 18% on imported internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, NEV sales continue to climb. In 2024, sales reached an impressive 15 589 units, doubling the 7 746 sold in 2023. According to naamsa data, NEV sales increased by 14,0% from 3 058 units in the first quarter 2024 to 3 487 units in the first quarter 2025.

Remarkably, this growth has preceded the introduction of direct government incentives for consumers. This inherent demand signals a market ripe for exponential growth, which can only be spurred further by the introduction of consumer-focused incentives.

The 150% tax incentive to attract EV manufacturers is a welcome development and will undoubtedly fuel greater demand and wider adoption. However, even before local manufacturing and potential consumer incentives materialise, the groundwork for sustainable adoption is being laid.

A crucial part of this groundwork is dispelling the myth of range anxiety, which is still widespread among local car buyers. South Africa's energy landscape is showing increasing stability, with an energy availability factor averaging over 60% in May and June of this year.

Furthermore, the EV charging infrastructure is expanding rapidly, with an estimated 26.3% growth forecast for 2025, resulting in a commendable charge point density of approximately one EV for every seven public chargers – a ratio that surpasses global averages. This reality needs to be effectively communicated to potential EV buyers.

Education is paramount. Car buyers, particularly fleet operators, need to understand the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of EVs, which extends beyond the initial purchase price.

Factors such as lower running costs due to cheaper electricity versus traditional fuel, reduced maintenance requirements thanks to fewer moving parts, and the potential for longer asset lifespans must be highlighted as presenting significant financial advantages for fleet operators in the long run.

South Africa possesses the inherent agility and innovative spirit to once again leapfrog established markets.

By focusing on educating consumers and fleet operators on the economic and practical viability of EVs in the South African context, and by leveraging a growing and increasingly reliable charging infrastructure, the nation can pave the way for a truly sustainable and widespread adoption of new energy vehicles.

This is not just a possibility; it is a trajectory already in motion.

Article: Linda Cele, Products Head Key Accounts & Partnerships: Fleet Management and Leasing at WesBank