GARDEN ROUTE NEWS - A story by investigative magazine Noseweek into the Knysna fires has fuelled the controversy surrounding the cause of last year's 7 June fires - and rumours of possible damage claims that could amount to billions of rand.

The Noseweek article, which appears in the January 2018 edition, focuses on an investigation that was reportedly conducted by scientists at the CSIR Meraka Institute. 

According to the publication, the report "could open the floodgates to negligence lawsuits running into the billions against Knysna municipality and its fire brigade".

While the magazine says it got sight of the CSIR report through an attorney, it also claims the CSIR informed them that the report was to be released around 6 January when they questioned why it was taking the CSIR so long to make their findings known.

However, the Knysna-Plett Herald, a George Herald sister publication, has learned that the report is apparently nowhere near ready for official release.

Noseweek reported that the investigation set out to establish the origin of what is known as the western fire, which started in the forests of Elandskraal, between Sedgefield and Knysna, in the early hours of 7 June.

The fire was the largest South Africa had seen since 1869, and an unprecedented number of resource and emergency services pulled together nationally to battle the blaze and assist with relief efforts. 

Seven people lost their lives and up to 1 000 properties were destroyed.

Conflicting reports
As previously reported, Knysna Fire Chief Clinton Manuel found in his report that the fire was caused by human activity, when flammable material was introduced into the Elandskraal area - pine cones were found where no pine trees grew and stacked fuel such as planks were found nearby. 

He stated that extreme weather conditions on the day provided the perfect conditions for the inferno that followed.

In contrast, the AfriForum report - compiled by forensic scientist Dr David Klatzow - states that a lightning strike in the Elandskraal area months before 7 June caused underground smouldering which, fuelled by weather conditions on the day, flared into a full-blown blaze. 

This opinion is shared by several others, notably the engineer and scientist Dr Wallace Vosloo. 

They claim the municipality and fire department ignored their repeated warnings about the smouldering fire for months on end.

CSIR spokesperson Tendani Tsedu told Knysna Plett Herald, "The CSIR has not released any report on the Knysna fire. 

"There is no media release. I really don't know where Noseweek received the information from."

Noseweek Editor Martin Welz said his publication never claimed there had been a news release from the CSIR. "Quite the contrary. We identified our source of the information as an attorney that had been given sight of the report."

Senior CSIR scientist quoted
"The CSIR responded by ordering its Meraka Institute to conduct a full investigation into the start of the western fire. 

The institute's confidential report is authored by Dr Philip Frost, a senior scientist at the CSIR who heads a group at Meraka called Earth Observation Applications.

"This unit's flagship project is the Advanced Fire Information System (Afis), which uses state-of-the-art technology to provide fire managers across the globe with information about prediction, detection, monitoring and assessment of wildfires."

Noseweek quoted Frost as saying that his only involvement in the municipal report was to help Manuel "identify the location of where the drone footage was, to confirm that there was a drone that flew over an area where there was a smouldering patch".

Forensic scientist Dr David Klatzow explains his conclusions at a media conference in August last year. Photo: Rozier van Tonder

Frost's conclusion, as stated in the article, is that the fire was indeed the result of underground smouldering caused by lightning eight weeks before - which opens the door to damage claims from affected persons.

The Noseweek article also questioned the CSIR's "secret report" via an editor's note that asked why the report is being held back, "as the law dictates that notice of any litigation must be served within six months".

CSIR denies release of report
When KPH contacted the CSIR, spokesperson Tendani Tsedu said, "The CSIR has not released any report on the Knysna fire. There is no media release. I really don't know where Noseweek received the information from."

Noseweek editor Martin Welz said his publication never said there had been a news release from the CSIR. 

"Quite the contrary. We identified our source of the information as an attorney that had been given sight of the report. 

"We did query why the CSIR was taking so long to release it. A CSIR spokesperson told us it was expected around the 6th of January," said Welz.

Meanwhile, Tsedu reiterated the report has not been officially released as it is scientific of nature and "due diligence needs to be done".

Tsedu added that there was never a time frame given in which to publish the report, and that it will be made public once it is ready.

An interview with Frost was also not possible at the time, he told KPH.

'Lightning-theory confirmed'
AfriForum spokesperson Reint Dykema said the organisation has been eagerly awaiting the CSIR's full report. 

"From the Noseweek article it seems as though the lightning strike and prolonged underground smouldering theory is confirmed, with the CSIR report being more in-depth, with newer data which is scientifically proven. 

"After the CSIR report is officially released, only then will AfriForum decide how to carry on with the issues at hand. Such a decision will be made in consultation with the Elandskraal community," he said.

Knysna municipal manager Kam Chetty said the municipality is also eagerly awaiting the release of the CSIR report.

"Once we have received and studied the report we will issue our comments. 

"Discussing a report that we have not seen can only lead to confusion and further complicate a sensitive situation," he added.

KPH was unable to reach Dr Klatzow at the time of going to print, but will ensure a follow-up with him and the relevant stakeholders once the CSIR's report is officially released.

* According to its website, "Noseweek is South Africa's only investigative magazine and features irreverent, independent, inside information about business, the professions, politics and society in South Africa. Published monthly it is essential reading for anybody interested in what's going on in the rainbow nation. Noseweek is owned by Chaucer Publications (Pty) Ltd. We are an independent private company not affiliated to any other group or corporate interest."

'We bring  you the latest Garden Route, Hessequa, Karoo news'