ENVIRONMENT NEWS - The 2026 El Niño event continues to develop as forecast, with the current ENSO prediction unchanged and a very strong El Niño still expected during the coming Austral summer.
Sea surface temperature patterns indicate the ongoing development of the event, with several indicators highlighting its unusual characteristics.
Earlier-than-average warming has been recorded in the Niño 3.4 region, while global average sea surface temperatures have also reached notable levels.
El Niño could peak between October and January
The latest seasonal climate forecasts from the University of Pretoria Seasonal Climate Worx indicate that El Niño is likely to peak in the very strong range between October and January 2027.
However, each ENSO event has unique characteristics, both in its internal development and in relation to other Earth system anomalies.
While broader ocean warming provides additional energy to the Earth system, various oceanic and atmospheric processes can influence how ENSO develops and affects different regions.
These factors can either amplify or reduce local impacts, creating significant uncertainty around forecasts of the effects of the 2026 El Niño.
ENSO Summit to provide further update
The ENSO Reference Group (ENSO RG) will provide a more detailed update at the ENSO Summit next month.
The update will cover the development, current manifestation and forecast of El Niño, as well as its anticipated impacts.
The group will also discuss extreme weather experienced during the early and latter parts of winter, including the dry July recorded in the winter rainfall region, as well as recent extreme summer weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
Public urged to rely on credible information
The ENSO Reference Group has urged those interested in or affected by the 2026/27 El Niño to remain informed and seek information from credible sources.
The group also cautioned against sensational reporting about the event.
The ENSO Reference Group will continue monitoring developments and issue a formal update during the upcoming El Niño Summit.
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